Consensus Revenue Estimates Long Memo, November 2024

Estimates for the State General Fund (SGF) are developed using a consensus process that involves the Legislative Research Department, Division of the Budget, Department of Revenue, and consulting economists from state universities. This estimate is the base from which the Governor and the Legislature build the annual budget. The Consensus Group met on November 15, 2024, to revise the estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2025 and to make its initial forecast for FY 2026. For FY 2025, the previous estimates were made in April 2024 and subsequently adjusted for legislation enacted during the veto session and the 2024 Special Session.

The overall estimate for FY 2025 was decreased by $59.8 million. Of this amount, the estimate for total taxes was decreased by $72.2 million, while the estimate for other revenues was increased by $12.4 million.

Table 1 compares the revised estimates for FY 2025 and the initial estimates for FY 2026 with actual receipts from FY 2024. Table 2 shows the changes to the previous FY 2025 estimate.

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